Split over Russia grows in Europe

BERLIN, Nov. 7 -- Russia sent President-elect Barack Obama a message this week when it threatened to "neutralize" the proposed U.S. missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. But analysts said the tough talk from Moscow had another aim as well: to exploit a festering divide within Europe.
Many Eastern European countries have become increasingly alarmed over what they consider Russia's aggressive attempts to re-create a sphere of influence over satellite states of the former Soviet Union. Such concerns soared after Russia sent troops into Georgia in August, sparking a brief war.
The worries worsened Wednesday when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the Kremlin would move short-range missiles into Kaliningrad, a sliver of Russian territory on the Baltic Sea bordering Poland and Lithuania, if the United States proceeds to base parts of a missile-defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus called the Russian threat "beyond comprehension."
In contrast, Germany, France and other countries in Western Europe play down any security risks posed by Moscow and instead see Russia foremost as a lucrative -- if unpredictable -- trading partner. These countries, which former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld once derided as "Old Europe," generally consider the U.S. missile defense project to be an unnecessary irritant.
Peter Struck, a former German defense minister and now parliamentary leader of the Social Democrats, one of Germany's two ruling political parties, called Medvedev's speech "understandable" and blamed the Bush administration for provoking Moscow. In a radio interview, he said he hoped Washington would soften its "intransigent position" on the missile shield.
As a protest over the war in Georgia, the European Union withdrew in August from negotiations with Russia over a "strategic partnership" agreement. On Wednesday, just hours before Medvedev gave his speech in Moscow, E.U. officials reversed their position and indicated they would soon resume talks. The shift was led by French and German officials who argued that engagement with Russia was more likely to succeed than isolation.

In Brussels on Friday, during a European summit on the global financial crisis, French President Nicolas Sarkozy defended the diplomatic approach. He said that he had already raised objections to Medvedev's speech but that fueling public tensions with Russia would be counterproductive. To "raise questions, it's better to see one another and talk," Sarkozy said.
In Eastern Europe, however, some leaders have lobbied for a harder line. In a joint statement this week, the presidents of Poland and Lithuania said negotiations should remain frozen because Russia has not lived up to an E.U.-brokered agreement to defuse the military conflict in Georgia.
"There is a general feeling that the Western allies are too tolerant, especially France," said Oldrich Cerny, director of the Prague Security Studies Institute and a former Czech national security adviser.
The U.S. military says the shield is designed to track and shoot down any ballistic missiles fired at Europe or the United States from a "rogue state," such as Iran.
The system would be built on several legs, with components in the United States, Britain and Greenland. More controversial has been the Pentagon's effort to place 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic.
Moscow has objected vehemently to the plan, saying that the system could be converted into an offensive weapon and aimed at Russia someday. U.S. officials say that Russia's fears are groundless and that the shield would be overwhelmed by Russia's enormous stockpile of nuclear and conventional missiles.
The Bush administration has invited Russia to participate in the shield, but talks have fizzled.
Russia has previously threatened military reprisals against Europe for supporting the shield. In August, a Russian general said Poland was "exposing itself to a strike -- 100 percent" if it agreed to host the interceptors. But Medvedev's comments were the first time that the Russian government itself has made a tangible threat to take military action against Europe since the end of the Cold War.
Russia's statements have led to increased support for the shield in Poland. After months of fitful negotiations with Washington, officials in Warsaw signed a preliminary agreement in August to accept the base.
Slawomir Debski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said public opinion shifted in favor of the shield after Russian troops moved into the Caucasus.
"Prior to the crisis over Georgia, the public was rather skeptical, and the government hesitated quite a bit," he said in a telephone interview from Warsaw. "The concern is that the rhetoric of Russia may not just be words, but that deeds may follow."
Officials in Prague also signed a preliminary accord this year to join the missile shield. But the Czech and Polish parliaments still need to approve the deal. Passage is particularly uncertain in the Czech Republic, where surveys show that a majority of residents are opposed.
Adding to the uncertainty is the forthcoming change of administrations in Washington. Obama has expressed skepticism about the project. In an interview with Fox News in September, he said the shield was "appropriate," but added, "I want to make sure it works, though."
Polish and Czech officials said they would not seek legislative approval until Obama gave his full support. For the moment, they said they are assuming the project remains on track.
"We haven't so far received any signals that the project may be changing in a negative way for us," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Wednesday at a news conference.
Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states belong to NATO, and officials acknowledge that Russia is highly unlikely to invade.
At the same time, each of the countries is dependent on Russian gas and oil, and they fret that Russia might turn off the valves someday as political retribution, just as it did to Ukraine in the winter of 2006.
Germany also relies heavily on Russia for its energy supplies. But rather than pull away, Berlin has tried to strengthen ties with Moscow in recent years and has been reluctant to criticize the Kremlin in public. Former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, for instance, heads a consortium of energy companies that reports to the Kremlin and is building a giant pipeline that will connect Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.
Klaus Segbers, a political science professor at the Free University of Berlin, said Eastern European countries should take a lesson from Germany and tone down their anti-Russian rhetoric. He said that although it may not be easy to deal with the Kremlin, there is no real alternative.
"We cannot get rid of Russia," Segbers said. "You can't put the Russians in a cage. To keep isolating Russia for an unspecified period of time is not something that will bring us any gains."

Who is Zaza Miminoshvili?

Who is Zaza Miminoshvili? Zaza Miminoshvili is a guitar player who organises a benefit performance on the 19/20/21th of October for those Georgians who fell victim to the Russian agression starting the 7th of August.
For every ticket being sold, 8 euro goes to children from Gori and Tschikinvali who are now getting shelter in Tbilisi.
Miminoshvili made it during a recent interview in die Zeit clear that the benefit performance is meant to help all the reguees: from South Ossetia, Abchazia and Georgia proper.

For all my German readers (who must be with thousands :-), go and see him:

19th October Berlin, Kulturbrauerei: 20.00
20th October Hamburg, Fabrik: 20.00
21th October Bremen, Moments: 20.00

EU presidency cautious about resuming Russia talks

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was cautious Monday about the likelihood of the European Union quickly resuming talks with Russia on a new strategic partnership.
"We are going to discuss it again today," he said, before chairing talks with his EU counterparts in Luxembourg. But he noted that a ceasefire deal ending the Russia-Georgia conflict in August was not being entirely respected.

While still contesting Russia’s backing for breakaway Georgian territories, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the ministers are expected to decide that Russia has kept its commitments by withdrawing troops from a buffer zone around the contested territories.
However, Kouchner and his EU counterparts have suggested that the decision to resume the partnership talks be taken immediately.
Kouchner reaffirmed that Russia had withdrawn its troops from buffer zones near the two breakaway Georgian regions, in line with a French-brokered ceasefire agreement.
"The Russians have withdrawn, and apart from South Ossetia and Abkhazia, there are no more Russia soldiers in Georgia," he said.
"We postponed" the partnership negotiations at an emergency summit on Georgia on Sept. 1, called after Russia recognized the independence of rebel Abkhazia and South Ossetia, he recalled.
But he said that of the six-points in the peace agreement reached on Aug. 12 between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, "we have fulfilled between two and three" points.
"Problems remain and we will analyze them," he said. "This is not something that can be resolved in two minutes."
Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, who is also head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said the decision could be taken just ahead of an EU-Russia summit scheduled for Nov. 14.
German deputy foreign minister Guenter Gloser, also arriving for the Luxembourg talks, said "there will always be some people who think the EU is doing Russia a favor" with the negotiations.
"But we must ask whether (the EU) would be doing itself a favor by blocking relations," given, in particular, the importance of Russian fuel supplies to Europe.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband welcomed the Russian troop withdrawal from the "buffer zones" as "an important step forward" and highlighted the fact that European monitors were able to operate "in a free and open way" in Georgia.
While saying the partnership deal with Russia could be addressed by the EU ministers he added that "at the moment we should be focusing on ensuring that all those elements that were agreed in September, including the Geneva talks, get going with proper speed," he added.
International talks on the Geneva situation, held under UN, OSCE and EU auspices, will begin on Wednesday.
There were, however, some more reticent voices coming from the Baltic states, Poland and Sweden.
Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt recalled that European leaders had agreed on Sept. 1 to freeze the talks until Russian forces withdraw to the positions they held before the outbreak of hostilities in Georgia in early August.
"If you look at the map they aren’t in the positions they had prior to August 7," he told reporters.
"They have made the withdrawal primarily from the buffer zones but there are areas they are occupying now where they were not on the 7th of August."
He refused to say whether Sweden would oppose the resumption of the talks.
Russian troops moved into Georgia on Aug. 8 after Georgia’s offensive to try to bring South Ossetia back under government control.
EU leaders called off talks on a strategic partnership agreement with Russia at a special summit on Sept. 1 and one week later Russia agreed to bring its troops out of the buffer zones.