A team of Obama administration officials, joined by officials from France and Russia, will begin negotiating in Vienna on Monday with Iranian diplomats over terms of an unusual deal that could remove a significant amount of Tehran's low-enriched uranium from the country.
The administration views the deal -- which would convert the uranium into fuel for a research reactor used for medical purposes -- as a test of Iranian intentions in the international impasse over the nation's nuclear program. The reactor is running short of fuel, according to Iran, and so the administration proposed that 80 percent of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile be sent to Russia for conversion into reactor fuel. France would then fashion the material into metal plates, composed of a uranium-aluminum alloy, used by this reactor.
U.S. officials argue that if Iran fails to follow through on a tentative agreement on this deal, then it will help strength the case for sanctions. But the negotiations already have highlighted splits between the United States and two of the key players -- Russia and China -- in the effort to restrain Iran's nuclear ambitions.
During a visit to Moscow last week, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was rebuffed by Russian officials when she tried to discuss the need for tougher sanctions if negotiations with Iran do not progress quickly. "All efforts should be focused on supporting the negotiating process," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, with Clinton at his side. "Threats, sanctions and threats of pressure in the current situation, we are convinced, would be counterproductive."
Meanwhile, China signaled impatience with talk of new sanctions. On Thursday, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met in Beijing with Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi and declared that his government would seek "close coordination in international affairs" with Iran. "The Sino-Iranian relationship has witnessed rapid development, as the two countries' leaders have had frequent exchanges, and cooperation in trade and energy has widened and deepened," Wen said, according to the official New China News Agency.
Three other key players -- France, Germany and Britain -- are more willing to press for sanctions if progress is not apparent by the end of the year. A secret French Foreign Ministry strategy paper, published this month by the French weekly Bakchich Hebdo and translated by the Web site ArmsControlWonk.com, depicted France as the most eager for substantial sanctions.
There were "minor differences about the envisioned sanctions" with Germany and Britain, the paper said.
"The United States, which made an unprecedented overture to Iran in the spring, apparently does not intend to review this strategy until the end of the year. Its strategy is a bit more wait-and-see than ours." Russia and China, it added, "very clearly emphasize dialogue and do not wish to raise the idea of further sanctions."
French officials declined to comment on the document.
In a sign of American seriousness, the U.S. delegation for the talks in Vienna will be headed by Deputy Secretary of Energy Daniel B. Poneman and include White House and State Department officials. The make-up of the Iranian delegation is unclear, but a Reuters report from Vienna quoted an Iranian official as saying Iran was sending relatively low-level officials rather than the head of its nuclear energy program.
Since officials announced a tentative agreement on the deal in Geneva on Oct. 1, Iran has sent a series of contradictory signals. Different Iranian officials have suggested at various times that there was no agreement; that Iran wanted to produce the fuel itself; that Iran wanted to purchase the fuel rather than convert its enriched uranium stock; and that Iran wanted to convert even more uranium. U.S. officials said they have no idea what Iran will propose in Vienna but they expect hard bargaining over timetables, payments and other issues.
The talks, to be held under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, will last at least two days.
The French document suggested that Paris is concerned the U.S. gambit could lead to endless haggling. "We have given the United States our agreement for this operation, with conditions," it said. "In particular, it seems essential that . . . the entire 1,200 kg [2,640 pounds] of uranium leave Iran on a short deadline (Iran should be asked for an answer in principle by the end of October; the uranium should exit before the end of the year)."
Posts tonen met het label Iran. Alle posts tonen
Posts tonen met het label Iran. Alle posts tonen
zondag 18 oktober 2009
maandag 10 november 2008
The gas troika
Energy powers Iran, Russia and Qatar will hold talks on Wednesday in Doha on gas cooperation, Iranian gas officials said on Monday.
Russia, Iran and Qatar -- which are respectively ranked first, second and third in the world in terms of gas reserves -- agreed to boost coordination at a meeting in Tehran last month.
After the meeting, Iran said there was consensus to set up a gas grouping like the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), drawing criticism from the European Union which opposes any group that could act like a cartel.
Russia referred to a "big gas troika", which should become a permanent body holding regular meetings.
"The second round of negotiations between Iran, Qatar and Russia on expanding cooperation between the three sides will start on Wednesday, Nov. 12 in Qatar's capital Doha," the National Iranian Gas Export Company (NIGEC) said in a statement on its website.
Gas officials told Reuters NIGEC managing director, Reza Kasaeizadeh, would head the Iranian team.
Kasaeizadeh told Reuters last month that creating a group of exporting countries would help harmonise pricing formulas and bring security to the growing market for the fuel.
Analysts say a gas body would not be able to turn gas taps on and off as OPEC does with oil, but it could share insights on upstream contract terms when it deals with gas investors.
Gas consumers like the United States and European states have opposed the formation of any gas body like OPEC, arguing that the market should set prices.
Russia, Iran and Qatar -- which are respectively ranked first, second and third in the world in terms of gas reserves -- agreed to boost coordination at a meeting in Tehran last month.
After the meeting, Iran said there was consensus to set up a gas grouping like the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), drawing criticism from the European Union which opposes any group that could act like a cartel.
Russia referred to a "big gas troika", which should become a permanent body holding regular meetings.
"The second round of negotiations between Iran, Qatar and Russia on expanding cooperation between the three sides will start on Wednesday, Nov. 12 in Qatar's capital Doha," the National Iranian Gas Export Company (NIGEC) said in a statement on its website.
Gas officials told Reuters NIGEC managing director, Reza Kasaeizadeh, would head the Iranian team.
Kasaeizadeh told Reuters last month that creating a group of exporting countries would help harmonise pricing formulas and bring security to the growing market for the fuel.
Analysts say a gas body would not be able to turn gas taps on and off as OPEC does with oil, but it could share insights on upstream contract terms when it deals with gas investors.
Gas consumers like the United States and European states have opposed the formation of any gas body like OPEC, arguing that the market should set prices.
donderdag 9 oktober 2008
Russia aiding Iran in nuclear program
PARIS — International nuclear inspectors are investigating whether a Russian scientist helped Iran conduct complex experiments on how to detonate a nuclear weapon, according to European and American officials.
As part of the investigation, inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency are seeking information from the scientist, whom they believe acted on his own as an adviser on experiments described in a lengthy document obtained by the agency, the officials said.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the investigation is underway, said that the document appeared authentic, without explaining why, but made clear that they did not think the scientist was working on behalf of the Russian government.
Still, it is the first time that the nuclear agency has suggested that Iran might have received help from a foreign weapons scientist in developing nuclear arms.
The American and European officials said the new document, written in Farsi, is part of an accumulation of evidence that Iran has worked toward developing a nuclear weapon, despite Tehran’s claims that its atomic work over the last two decades is aimed solely at producing electrical power.
Last February, in a closed-door briefing in the agency’s headquarters in Vienna, the agency’s chief nuclear inspector presented diplomats from dozens of countries with a trove of newly declassified evidence — documents, sketches and even a video — that he said raised questions about whether Iran has tried to design a weapon.
Among the data presented by Olli Heinonen, the chief inspector, were indications that the Iranians had worked on exploding detonators that are critical for the firing of most nuclear weapons.
When the Iranian envoy at the briefing called the charges “groundless” and protested that the tests were for conventional arms, Mr. Heinonen replied that the experiments were “not consistent with any application other than the development of a nuclear weapon.” He called the shape and timing involved in the firing systems and detonators “key components of nuclear weapons.”
At the same time, however, Mr. Heinonen acknowledged that the agency “did not have sufficient information at this stage to conclude whether the allegations are groundless or the data fabricated.”
The new document currently under investigation offers further evidence of such experiments, Western officials said.
Iranian officials have said repeatedly that the documents the agency is using in its investigation of Iran’s past nuclear activities are fabrications or forgeries, and that any experiments were not related to nuclear weapons.
Iran has said the same about the new evidence, although the I.A.E.A. has not shown the full document to officials in Tehran. Instead, Iran has been given only five pages of excerpts that have been translated from Farsi into English.
The Western officials said that the conditions under which the inspectors obtained the document prohibited them from revealing it in full to the Iranians, out of fear that it could expose the source of the document.
These restrictions present a dilemma for Mohamed ElBaradei, the agency’s director, who is pressuring Iran to reveal its past nuclear activity. “I cannot accuse a person without providing him or her with the evidence,” he said in an interview last year.
Although officials would not say how they obtained the new document, it was first publicly mentioned in an agency report last May as one of 18 documents presented to Iran in connection with alleged nuclear weapons studies.
It was described as a “five-page document in English” dealing with experimentation with a complex initiation system to detonate a substantial amount of high explosives and to monitor the detonation with probes. There was no indication that the document was a translation of a much longer and more comprehensive document in Farsi.
The original document is described by officials familiar with it as a detailed narrative of experiments aimed at creating a perfectly-timed implosion of nuclear material.
According to experts, the two most difficult challenges in developing nuclear weapons is creating the bomb fuel and figuring out how to compress and detonate it.
An agency report last month revealed that Iran may have received “foreign expertise” in its detonator experiments.
A senior official with links to the agency said at the time that a foreign government was not involved. He also ruled out the involvement of Libya and the remnants of the network run by Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani metallurgist who built the world’s largest black-market sales operation for nuclear technology. But he refused to comment further.
European and American officials now say that the “foreign expertise” was a reference to the Russian scientist, but offered only scant details. They said the scientist is believed to have helped guide Iranians in the experiments, but that he was not the author of the document.
Nor is he thought to have been affiliated with the civilian electric power plant that is being rebuilt by Russia at the Iranian port of Bushehr, and which Russia has agreed to fuel with nuclear material, officials said.
Russia says it opposes any effort by Iran to obtain a weapon, but cooperation by Russian companies and individuals with some aspects of Iran’s nuclear program dates back years.
In the late 1990’s, Russia’s scientific and technical elite, reeling from the collapse of the Soviet Union, forged ties to Iran, which paid hard currency for aid in weapon and technical programs. Western experts say the assistance extended to Tehran’s atomic efforts, but there was never any proof in those years of a Russian link to nuclear weapons development.
“The Iranians were very active in recruiting and paying Russian scientists to provide them with assistance in their nuclear program,” said Gary S. Samore, a National Security Council official during the Clinton administration who now directs studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Dr. Samore said he had no recollection of Russian aid in the design of Iranian nuclear arms but added that it could have happened. “There was so much back and forth,” he said in an interview. “It’s plausible to me that they at some point paid a Russian nuclear expert to provide assistance.”
Asked about the potential contribution of the Russian scientist in detonator experimentation, a senior Russian official who has long followed Iran’s nuclear program said, “It is difficult for me to add anything.”
As part of the investigation, inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency are seeking information from the scientist, whom they believe acted on his own as an adviser on experiments described in a lengthy document obtained by the agency, the officials said.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the investigation is underway, said that the document appeared authentic, without explaining why, but made clear that they did not think the scientist was working on behalf of the Russian government.
Still, it is the first time that the nuclear agency has suggested that Iran might have received help from a foreign weapons scientist in developing nuclear arms.
The American and European officials said the new document, written in Farsi, is part of an accumulation of evidence that Iran has worked toward developing a nuclear weapon, despite Tehran’s claims that its atomic work over the last two decades is aimed solely at producing electrical power.
Last February, in a closed-door briefing in the agency’s headquarters in Vienna, the agency’s chief nuclear inspector presented diplomats from dozens of countries with a trove of newly declassified evidence — documents, sketches and even a video — that he said raised questions about whether Iran has tried to design a weapon.
Among the data presented by Olli Heinonen, the chief inspector, were indications that the Iranians had worked on exploding detonators that are critical for the firing of most nuclear weapons.
When the Iranian envoy at the briefing called the charges “groundless” and protested that the tests were for conventional arms, Mr. Heinonen replied that the experiments were “not consistent with any application other than the development of a nuclear weapon.” He called the shape and timing involved in the firing systems and detonators “key components of nuclear weapons.”
At the same time, however, Mr. Heinonen acknowledged that the agency “did not have sufficient information at this stage to conclude whether the allegations are groundless or the data fabricated.”
The new document currently under investigation offers further evidence of such experiments, Western officials said.
Iranian officials have said repeatedly that the documents the agency is using in its investigation of Iran’s past nuclear activities are fabrications or forgeries, and that any experiments were not related to nuclear weapons.
Iran has said the same about the new evidence, although the I.A.E.A. has not shown the full document to officials in Tehran. Instead, Iran has been given only five pages of excerpts that have been translated from Farsi into English.
The Western officials said that the conditions under which the inspectors obtained the document prohibited them from revealing it in full to the Iranians, out of fear that it could expose the source of the document.
These restrictions present a dilemma for Mohamed ElBaradei, the agency’s director, who is pressuring Iran to reveal its past nuclear activity. “I cannot accuse a person without providing him or her with the evidence,” he said in an interview last year.
Although officials would not say how they obtained the new document, it was first publicly mentioned in an agency report last May as one of 18 documents presented to Iran in connection with alleged nuclear weapons studies.
It was described as a “five-page document in English” dealing with experimentation with a complex initiation system to detonate a substantial amount of high explosives and to monitor the detonation with probes. There was no indication that the document was a translation of a much longer and more comprehensive document in Farsi.
The original document is described by officials familiar with it as a detailed narrative of experiments aimed at creating a perfectly-timed implosion of nuclear material.
According to experts, the two most difficult challenges in developing nuclear weapons is creating the bomb fuel and figuring out how to compress and detonate it.
An agency report last month revealed that Iran may have received “foreign expertise” in its detonator experiments.
A senior official with links to the agency said at the time that a foreign government was not involved. He also ruled out the involvement of Libya and the remnants of the network run by Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani metallurgist who built the world’s largest black-market sales operation for nuclear technology. But he refused to comment further.
European and American officials now say that the “foreign expertise” was a reference to the Russian scientist, but offered only scant details. They said the scientist is believed to have helped guide Iranians in the experiments, but that he was not the author of the document.
Nor is he thought to have been affiliated with the civilian electric power plant that is being rebuilt by Russia at the Iranian port of Bushehr, and which Russia has agreed to fuel with nuclear material, officials said.
Russia says it opposes any effort by Iran to obtain a weapon, but cooperation by Russian companies and individuals with some aspects of Iran’s nuclear program dates back years.
In the late 1990’s, Russia’s scientific and technical elite, reeling from the collapse of the Soviet Union, forged ties to Iran, which paid hard currency for aid in weapon and technical programs. Western experts say the assistance extended to Tehran’s atomic efforts, but there was never any proof in those years of a Russian link to nuclear weapons development.
“The Iranians were very active in recruiting and paying Russian scientists to provide them with assistance in their nuclear program,” said Gary S. Samore, a National Security Council official during the Clinton administration who now directs studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Dr. Samore said he had no recollection of Russian aid in the design of Iranian nuclear arms but added that it could have happened. “There was so much back and forth,” he said in an interview. “It’s plausible to me that they at some point paid a Russian nuclear expert to provide assistance.”
Asked about the potential contribution of the Russian scientist in detonator experimentation, a senior Russian official who has long followed Iran’s nuclear program said, “It is difficult for me to add anything.”
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