Split over Russia grows in Europe

BERLIN, Nov. 7 -- Russia sent President-elect Barack Obama a message this week when it threatened to "neutralize" the proposed U.S. missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. But analysts said the tough talk from Moscow had another aim as well: to exploit a festering divide within Europe.
Many Eastern European countries have become increasingly alarmed over what they consider Russia's aggressive attempts to re-create a sphere of influence over satellite states of the former Soviet Union. Such concerns soared after Russia sent troops into Georgia in August, sparking a brief war.
The worries worsened Wednesday when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the Kremlin would move short-range missiles into Kaliningrad, a sliver of Russian territory on the Baltic Sea bordering Poland and Lithuania, if the United States proceeds to base parts of a missile-defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus called the Russian threat "beyond comprehension."
In contrast, Germany, France and other countries in Western Europe play down any security risks posed by Moscow and instead see Russia foremost as a lucrative -- if unpredictable -- trading partner. These countries, which former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld once derided as "Old Europe," generally consider the U.S. missile defense project to be an unnecessary irritant.
Peter Struck, a former German defense minister and now parliamentary leader of the Social Democrats, one of Germany's two ruling political parties, called Medvedev's speech "understandable" and blamed the Bush administration for provoking Moscow. In a radio interview, he said he hoped Washington would soften its "intransigent position" on the missile shield.
As a protest over the war in Georgia, the European Union withdrew in August from negotiations with Russia over a "strategic partnership" agreement. On Wednesday, just hours before Medvedev gave his speech in Moscow, E.U. officials reversed their position and indicated they would soon resume talks. The shift was led by French and German officials who argued that engagement with Russia was more likely to succeed than isolation.

In Brussels on Friday, during a European summit on the global financial crisis, French President Nicolas Sarkozy defended the diplomatic approach. He said that he had already raised objections to Medvedev's speech but that fueling public tensions with Russia would be counterproductive. To "raise questions, it's better to see one another and talk," Sarkozy said.
In Eastern Europe, however, some leaders have lobbied for a harder line. In a joint statement this week, the presidents of Poland and Lithuania said negotiations should remain frozen because Russia has not lived up to an E.U.-brokered agreement to defuse the military conflict in Georgia.
"There is a general feeling that the Western allies are too tolerant, especially France," said Oldrich Cerny, director of the Prague Security Studies Institute and a former Czech national security adviser.
The U.S. military says the shield is designed to track and shoot down any ballistic missiles fired at Europe or the United States from a "rogue state," such as Iran.
The system would be built on several legs, with components in the United States, Britain and Greenland. More controversial has been the Pentagon's effort to place 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic.
Moscow has objected vehemently to the plan, saying that the system could be converted into an offensive weapon and aimed at Russia someday. U.S. officials say that Russia's fears are groundless and that the shield would be overwhelmed by Russia's enormous stockpile of nuclear and conventional missiles.
The Bush administration has invited Russia to participate in the shield, but talks have fizzled.
Russia has previously threatened military reprisals against Europe for supporting the shield. In August, a Russian general said Poland was "exposing itself to a strike -- 100 percent" if it agreed to host the interceptors. But Medvedev's comments were the first time that the Russian government itself has made a tangible threat to take military action against Europe since the end of the Cold War.
Russia's statements have led to increased support for the shield in Poland. After months of fitful negotiations with Washington, officials in Warsaw signed a preliminary agreement in August to accept the base.
Slawomir Debski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said public opinion shifted in favor of the shield after Russian troops moved into the Caucasus.
"Prior to the crisis over Georgia, the public was rather skeptical, and the government hesitated quite a bit," he said in a telephone interview from Warsaw. "The concern is that the rhetoric of Russia may not just be words, but that deeds may follow."
Officials in Prague also signed a preliminary accord this year to join the missile shield. But the Czech and Polish parliaments still need to approve the deal. Passage is particularly uncertain in the Czech Republic, where surveys show that a majority of residents are opposed.
Adding to the uncertainty is the forthcoming change of administrations in Washington. Obama has expressed skepticism about the project. In an interview with Fox News in September, he said the shield was "appropriate," but added, "I want to make sure it works, though."
Polish and Czech officials said they would not seek legislative approval until Obama gave his full support. For the moment, they said they are assuming the project remains on track.
"We haven't so far received any signals that the project may be changing in a negative way for us," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Wednesday at a news conference.
Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states belong to NATO, and officials acknowledge that Russia is highly unlikely to invade.
At the same time, each of the countries is dependent on Russian gas and oil, and they fret that Russia might turn off the valves someday as political retribution, just as it did to Ukraine in the winter of 2006.
Germany also relies heavily on Russia for its energy supplies. But rather than pull away, Berlin has tried to strengthen ties with Moscow in recent years and has been reluctant to criticize the Kremlin in public. Former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, for instance, heads a consortium of energy companies that reports to the Kremlin and is building a giant pipeline that will connect Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.
Klaus Segbers, a political science professor at the Free University of Berlin, said Eastern European countries should take a lesson from Germany and tone down their anti-Russian rhetoric. He said that although it may not be easy to deal with the Kremlin, there is no real alternative.
"We cannot get rid of Russia," Segbers said. "You can't put the Russians in a cage. To keep isolating Russia for an unspecified period of time is not something that will bring us any gains."